Portugal’s gambling regulator has ordered cryptocurrency-based prediction market Polymarket to stop operating in the country and has begun steps to block the platform nationwide.
Authorities say the platform is illegal in Portugal and raised concerns after a large amount of money was wagered on the presidential election before official results were announced.
The Serviço de Regulação e Inspeção de Jogos (SRIJ) told Portuguese broadcaster Renascença that Polymarket does not have permission to offer betting services in Portugal. Under Portuguese law, betting on political events is strictly banned.
Millions Bet Before Election Results
Regulators became concerned after more than €4–5 million was bet on Polymarket’s presidential election markets just hours before the official results were announced. In total, betting activity on the main election market reached over €110 million.
Officials said the timing of these bets was suspicious and raised fears that some traders may have used leaked exit polls or other information that was not yet public.
While voting was still taking place, the market suddenly changed. The chances of Socialist candidate António José Seguro winning jumped sharply from about 60% to 95% between 6 p.m. and 8 p.m. At the same time, the chances of Liberal candidate João Cotrim de Figueiredo fell from around 22% to just 2.5%.
Reports said that exit poll results were being shared privately among journalists and polling companies before they were officially released.
Seguro won 31% of the votes in the first round, while far-right candidate André Ventura received 24%. Both candidates will now face each other in a runoff election in February.
48-Hour Shutdown Order and Blocking Measures
SRIJ issued Polymarket a 48-hour deadline to stop operating in Portugal after determining that the platform was offering illegal betting services. Despite the order, Polymarket remained accessible in the country even after the deadline expired.
Portuguese authorities decided to move ahead with stronger enforcement measures, including network-level blocking to restrict access from Portuguese IP addresses. The regulator stressed that it only supervises licensed gambling operators and does not recognize Polymarket as a legal platform.
It also warned Portuguese users that once the blocking measures are fully implemented, there may be no legal protection or guarantee that they will be able to recover any funds held on the platform.
Growing Global Pressure on Polymarket
Founded in 2020 by Shayne Coplan, Polymarket is a cryptocurrency-based prediction market that allows users to trade on the outcomes of real-world events using USDC stablecoins. While the platform describes itself as a forecasting tool rather than a gambling service, regulators in many countries have rejected that argument.
Portugal is the latest country to take action against Polymarket, joining France, Belgium, Germany, Poland, Romania, Switzerland, and Hungary. Hungary has already blocked access to the platform while investigating possible illegal gambling activities.
In the United States, regulatory scrutiny has also increased. Tennessee recently issued a cease-and-desist order against Polymarket, while rival platform Kalshi faced similar action but obtained a temporary court injunction.
Between Crypto Platforms and Gambling Laws
Despite securing major investment in late 2024, Polymarket continues to face regulatory challenges globally. Portugal’s move highlights the conflict between cryptocurrency-based prediction markets and national gambling laws, particularly when political events are involved.
Authorities are concerned that these platforms could undermine election integrity if non-public information, like exit polls, influences bets.
The case illustrates the difficulties governments face in regulating decentralized markets and protecting users while balancing innovation in crypto technology with the need to enforce strict national gambling rules.
